The Science of

• Disagreement.
• Belief.
• Controversy.
• Decision-making.

The Science of Disagreement

My research aims to clarify the psychological and computational basis of disagreement—across scales, domains, and agents—from definition to intervention. Here are two key projects:

Why do controversies persist? Our framework explains why dissent from millions rarely changes our beliefs on important issues, from abortion to vaccination (Oktar & Lombrozo, 2024).

How do we avoid manipulation? Our computational model explains how people learn from motivated communication and provides a novel explanation of belief polarization (Oktar, Sumers, & Griffiths, 2024).

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Is abortion morally acceptable? Is the Earth getting warmer? Should vaccines be mandatory?

Beliefs about such issues shape society. And people form these beliefs collectively, by negotiating differences in their views; learning from each other in some cases, and ignoring dissent in others. The goal of my research program is to understand the cognitive mechanisms that shape beliefs on such controversies---including how people navigate disagreements and change their views.

I pursue this goal through multiple methods: I construct theories that identify the inductive problems people solve to navigate controversies, build computational models that provide optimal solutions to these problems, and test these models by comparing their predictions to human behavior across scientific, religious, moral, and political controversies. I then use these insights in theory-based interventions that leverage cutting-edge tools (e.g., large language models) to foster productive engagement with diverse perspectives.

My research operates at two levels of analysis. At one level, I study how people respond to an increasingly prevalent form of social information: the aggregated opinions of hundreds to millions of strangers (e.g., in the form of likes, polls, and votes). At another level, I examine responses to the conflicting testimony of known individuals.

What drives our beliefs and decisions?

I also study when deeply important beliefs—such as whether immigration restrictions are moral—can be changed (Oktar et al., 2023); and am interested in how people decide how to decide (Oktar & Lombrozo, 2022).

Who am I?

I was born and raised in Istanbul (Turkey); studied economics and cognitive science at Pomona College (CA); and am currently at Princeton (NJ), advancing research alongside a fantastic community of collaborators.

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Like many, my research is motivated by my past. I left Turkey to study in the U.S because I thought it was collapsing economically and losing its democratic, secular values (this turned out to be true). Participating in the Gezi Park protests made me acutely aware of the importance of dissent---and our remarkable capacity for it. Since then, I have been trying to understand how and when others' beliefs influence ours.

Resources.

I want science to be more inclusive and rigorous. Here are some resources that can help with that:

• Click here for concrete advice on succeeding in academia (currently focusing on graduate school applications).
• Click here for a set of accessible and opinionated stats tutorials.
• Click here for intuitive explanations of some interesting problems.

Contact.

Feel free to contact me at oktar[at]princeton[dot]edu with regards to research / collaboration / mentorship /… - I love talking about science. If you would like to send me anonymous feedback, click here.